NAEP and Choice: Something’s Not Adding Up

By Charles Barone, National Parents Union Senior Director of the Center for Innovation

Two significant events occurred on the national education landscape yesterday: the highly anticipated and widely commented upon release of 2024 results on the National Assessment of Education Progress (NAEP); and, the less attended to, thus far, but likely auspicious issuance of executive orders on school choice by President Donald J. Trump.

NAEP results are about as bad as they were expected to be. Across the nation, on average, reading scores in 4th and 8th grade are down and math scores are stagnant. Students who were the furthest behind are showing the sharpest declines relative to their higher achieving peers, while their more advantaged peers are showing slight upticks.

It’s hard to say whether President Trump’s executive orders on school choice were timed to coincide with the NAEP release or if they have so many edicts they’re  trying to get out the door that it was a coincidence. Either way, there are some, of course, who are trying to use the NAEP scores as a rationale for expanded private school choice. Whether you’re voucher proponent or a skeptic – and we’ll leave that debate for other forums – you have to admit that there are some flaws in this logic. Here are 3 key ones:

1. Private School Choice Won’t Improve State NAEP Scores. There are no state-level NAEP results for private schools. NAEP does assess private schools but that data is only available on a nationwide level. One could argue that the competition being exerted by private schools against public schools could improve outcomes in the latter, but the data at the very best are mixed. Big private school choice states like Arizona and Florida actually saw some of the most precipitous drops in NAEP 4th grade reading as compared to 2022 while states with newer choice programs such as Indiana and, in particular, Louisiana showed gains. Both those latter states also, though, have embarked on other reform efforts with regard to public schools.

With the continued expansion of choice programs and states like Texas on the verge, maybe this is a good time for a discussion of whether NAEP should expand to include state-level private school results? You would think anyone using the NAEP results as a rationale for expanded private school choice would be on board with that. But I’m not so sure. Which brings us to point #2.

2. School Choice Advocates Are Split on Whether Students Attending Publicly Subsidized Private Schools Should Take Any Tests At All. Some school choice advocates contend that choice is the ultimate type of accountability and that other forms of accountability, through formal assessments and other indices, are unnecessary. One argument, for example, is that the public school system is a monopoly and thus needs to be regulated while, in contrast, open-market education systems are more dynamic and need a “lighter touch.”

Certainly test scores and other outcome data are not the only considerations a parent could or should make in choosing a school for their child. But wouldn’t it be helpful for parents to have achievement data in making this decision? In an NPU poll released earlier this year, 86% of parents supported requiring schools to provide access to data on student achievement, discipline, and enrollment so that families and policymakers can make informed decisions. Shouldn’t policymakers also have some of this same information in determining the return on investment that taxpayers are getting from private school operators? Even red states like Indiana and Louisiana (both of which – coincidentally? – are among the few showing NAEP gains) have taken this approach as has the solidly blue District of Columbia. Which brings us to point 3.

3. If You’re Looking for Test Score Gains, Private School Choice Should Probably Not Be At the Top of Your List of Options. The most rigorous recent research shows that, on standardized assessments, private school students, including those receiving vouchers, fare no better than, and in some instances fare worse, than their peers in public schools. Some studies do show that expanded private school choice improves performance for public school students, assumedly as a result of competition, but the effect is said to be very modest. Also, vouchers may increase the likelihood that students enroll in and complete college.

But if it’s test scores you’re worried about, be it NAEP or state tests or school-chosen normative assessments, vouchers would not seem to be your best first choice for improvement. Fortunately, there is a wide body of evidence (check out, for example, the What Works Clearinghouse or the Evidence for ESSA project at Johns Hopkins) on what does work to improve student achievement, especially in the public schools where 90% of students continue to be enrolled. And many of those policies and practices – like high-impact tutoring, personalized instruction, expanded learning time, improved school leadership, and data-driven decisionmaking – are exactly what parents are asking for and, candidly, still aren’t getting in high enough doses from the public education system.

In the coming months, with any luck and a good deal of effort, the NAEP results will propel our policymakers to dramatically change that state of affairs.